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Back in October 2022, as Rishi Sunak assumed office as the UK's leader, he became the fifth consecutive British prime minister to occupy the role in six years.

Triggered in the UK by Brexit, this represented unprecedented political turmoil. So how might we describe what is occurring in France, now on its fifth premier in two years – three of them in the past 10 months?

The current premier, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on that day, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in return for support from Socialist lawmakers as the cost of his administration's continuation.

But it is, at best, a short-term solution. The EU’s number two economic power is locked in a political permacrisis, the scale of which it has not witnessed for many years – perhaps not since the establishment of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no simple way out.

Minority Rule

Key background: ever since Macron called an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, the nation has had a divided assembly split into three opposing factions – the left, the far right and his own centrist coalition – without any group holding a clear majority.

At the same time, the nation faces dual debt and deficit crises: its debt-to-GDP ratio and deficit are now nearly double the EU limit, and strict legal timelines to approve a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are approaching.

In this challenging environment, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In mid-September, the president appointed his trusted associate Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which turned out to be largely unchanged from before – he encountered anger from both supporters and rivals.

To such an extent that the following day, he resigned. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in modern French history. In a dignified speech, he blamed political intransigence, saying “party loyalties” and “personal ambitions” would make his job all but impossible.

Another twist in the tale: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for two more days in a final attempt to salvage cross-party backing – a mission, to put it mildly, filled with challenges.

Next, two ex-prime ministers publicly turned on the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) refused to meet Lecornu, vowing to reject any and every new government unless there were early elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, engaging with all willing listeners. At the conclusion of his extension, he appeared on television to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The leader's team announced the president would name a fresh premier two days later.

Macron honored his word – and on Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So this week – with Macron commenting from the wings that the nation's opposing groups were “fuelling division” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Would he endure – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a critical address, the 39-year-old PM outlined his financial plans, giving the Socialist party, who oppose Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were expecting: Macron’s flagship reform would be suspended until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already supportive, the Socialists said they would refuse to support censorship votes tabled against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the administration would likely endure those votes, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, however, far from guaranteed to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS explicitly warned that it would be demanding further compromises. “This,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

A Cultural Shift

The issue is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, similar to the Socialists, the conservatives are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how difficult his mission – and future viability – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR seek his removal.

To achieve that, they need a majority of 288 votes in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 deputies or the LR’s 47 (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in 24 months is, similar to his forerunners, finished.

Most expect this to occur soon. Although, by an unlikely turn, the divided parliament summons up the collective responsibility to pass a budget by year-end, the outlook afterward look bleak.

So is there a way out? Snap elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: polls suggest nearly all parties except the RN would see reduced representation, but there would still be no clear majority. A fresh premier would face the same intractable arithmetic.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to step down. After a presidential vote, his replacement would disband the assembly and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the ensuing legislative vote. But this also remains unclear.

Polls suggest the future president will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that France’s voters, having chosen a far-right leader, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

Ultimately, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its leaders accept the new political reality, which is that decisive majorities are a thing of the past, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Numerous observers believe that transformation will not be possible under the country’s current constitution. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and actively discourages – the emergence of governing coalitions typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”