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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though experts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks could take months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.